Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Au Revoir Wedge…plus Week 4 College Football Preview
5-5 last week..moving my record to 10-9 on the season. Not spectacular, but I feel good about this week. We took a serious bad beat in the SMU/Washington State game. Mitchell for SMU threw 4 picks, 2 of which were taken to the house in the 2nd half, despite that, we had the game won on 4th and 13, but a phantom pass interference call on an incomplete pass kept a drive alive and Washington State scored a late TD to tie and won in OT. Like I said, feel good about this week. Here we go.
Ole Miss (-3) @ South Carolina
Last year, after beating Florida being on the cover of Sports Illustrated, Ole Miss had a huge letdown and let South Carolina come into Oxford and knocked them off. The highest of highs and the lowest of lows. Ole Miss hasn’t played a real solid game yet, with 5 turnovers in their 2 games vs. Memphis and SE Louisiana. This team in Houston Nutt’s first year last year won games @ Florida, @ Arkansas, and @ LSU and lost @ unbeaten Alabama only 24-20. Being on the road in hostile environments shouldn’t be an issue, especially since this team returns 51 lettermen and 16 starters from that team last year. OLE MISS on the road takes care of the Cocks.
Texas Tech (73.5) @ Houston
Tech is coming a solid performance vs. Texas..(good enough to cover) and after playing that tough Texas defense, playing against this Houston defense they should have consider success moving the ball and scoring. Taylor Potts reminds me a lot of Graham Harrell, except he is taller and has a better arm, but has less weapons and has a Fu Manchu. For those of you who don’t know Case Keenum..get to know him. All he did it throw for 5000+ yards last year and 44 Tds vs. only 11 INTs. He has a ton of weapons around him, including RB Bryce Beall who ran for 1247 yards and 13 Tds last year and 8 of his top 9 receivers return from a year ago. Houston has scored over 40 points in 9 of their last 10 games and that includes a 70 point performance vs. a solid Tulsa team last year and 45 vs. a top 5 (at the time) Oklahoma State team (that held Georgia to 10 points). I see no reason this game shouldn’t be played in the 40’s and that will easily take this game OVER the total of 73.5.
Arizona State @ Georgia (-11.5)
Georgia’s defense may not look great..giving up over 700 passing yards in the last two games combined, but it may be a big deceiving..their offense has turned it over 9 times in 3 games, putting them on the field an awful lot in sudden change situations, often in short fields where it is tough for a defense. I have to think Coach Richt will be preaching taking care of the rock in practice this week and if they do, this potent offense which has hung 52 on Arkansas and 41 on South Carolina (tough and fast SEC defenses) should have no problems lighting up the scoreboard and beating down ASU. I like GEORGIA at home.
Miami (-3) @ Virginia Tech
Tyrod Taylor has not improved his passing game much that I can see so far this season..through 3 and a half quarters vs. Nebraska he was something like 8-22 for 88 yards before putting two drives together and pulling out an improbable victory. In fact, with 4 minutes left in the game they had 36 total yards in the 2nd half. They also held Nebraska to 5 field goals and also a first and goal from the 6 that ended up being 3rd and goal from the 36 after NU penalties where they had to punt. This just in: Jacory Harris scores touchdowns and Miami’s defense is better than the Huskers’ D. At some point Miami will let down, but not this week (possibly next week coming off this big win in Lane Stadium vs. Oklahoma) in what is almost the ACC Coastal Division championship game. THE U is back and I’ll give up the points here on the road.
Illinois @ Ohio State (-14)
We all remember the last time Juice Williams came into the Shoe..knocking off the #1 team in the nation. We all watched as he used up the last 8 minutes of the clock on the final drive..picking up seemingly 10 3rd down conversions along the way. I really don’t know what to think of this Illini team..they were steamrolled on a national stage vs. Mizzou and their win vs. Illinois State doesn’t do much for me. I have a good feeling about this Buckeye team..their defense is fast and tough and really flies to the ball. They have playmakers in Gibson and Coleman..I’d like to see them force more turnovers, but they are a solid unit that hasn’t made many out of position mistakes. I think Illinois struggles to put points on the board and I like a 3:30 kickoff a lot at the Shoe..gives everybody a chance to wake up and get more cocktails in them before game time. The Bucks have covered for us two weeks in a row..I will ride the streak for week 3..OHIO STATE -14.
Other plays for you.
MINNESOTA +2.5 (wait til Saturday and get 3) @ Northwestern
WISCONSIN -3 vs. Michigan State
PITT +1 @ NC State
ARKANSAS +17 @ Alabama
PENN STATE -10 vs. Iowa